The 8% Problem: BP’s Increased Oil Forecast Threatens Climate Deadline

An 8% increase in BP’s long-term oil demand forecast for 2050 signals a major setback for global climate goals. The energy company’s annual outlook, now projecting 83 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2050, indicates that the world is slowing its clean energy transition and is unlikely to meet the critical 2050 net-zero emissions target.
BP’s new figures reflect a substantial upward revision from the previous 77 million b/d estimate for 2050. Natural gas demand projections also saw a slight increase, now set at 4,806 billion cubic meters a year in 2050. Moreover, the forecast for peak oil demand has been delayed by five years, now expected to hit 103 million b/d in 2030, reinforcing the extended period of high fossil fuel reliance.
The impetus for this sustained demand is rooted in the current global focus on energy security, intensified by geopolitical factors. BP’s chief economist highlights that conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with trade tariffs, are compelling nations to prioritize domestic supply. This security-first approach may motivate some countries to become ‘electrostates’ focused on low-carbon domestic power, but the report warns that it also strongly incentivizes the use of domestically produced fossil fuels over imported energy alternatives.
The environmental cost of this slower pace is profound. BP’s modeling shows that the world is on track to breach the cumulative 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. The company stresses that maintaining the current trajectory increases the economic and social costs required for future climate mitigation. To hit the net-zero goal, BP calculates that oil demand needs to drop aggressively to about 35 million b/d by 2050, underscoring the monumental task ahead.
Despite the necessary and rapid growth of renewables—projected to meet over 80% of new electricity demand by 2035—oil will remain the largest single source of primary global energy supply, holding a 30% share in 2035. Renewables are set to rise from 10% to 15% of the primary energy mix by 2035 but are not expected to surpass oil’s market share until the late 2040s, highlighting the stubborn inertia in the global energy system.