The Domino Effect: How Defeating Hezbollah Could Lead to Broader Peace

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is betting on a domino effect, suggesting that Israel’s military “victories” against Hezbollah could topple barriers to peace with Lebanon and Syria. In a statement Sunday, he laid out a vision where weakening the powerful militia creates a new political reality conducive to state-to-state agreements.
The first domino to fall appears to be Syria. In the wake of Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, his successor has entered into direct peace negotiations with Israel. This stunning reversal of decades of policy is moving at a brisk pace, with a Syrian official indicating that security deals could be wrapped up by the end of the year.
The next domino, Lebanon, is wobbling. While Israel continues to strike Hezbollah targets despite a ceasefire, the Lebanese government itself is now taking steps to disarm the group. Prodded by the U.S. and a new regional dynamic, Beirut has ordered its army to draft and implement a disarmament plan.
“Our victories in Lebanon against Hezbollah have opened a window for a possibility that was not even imagined before,” Netanyahu explained, articulating his theory of this domino effect. He confirmed active talks with Syria, noting “some progress” but also the significant distance yet to be covered.
This potential cascade is already having real-world consequences. The new Syrian government under Ahmed al-Sharaa is negotiating an Israeli withdrawal from lands occupied in recent months in exchange for a demilitarized zone. Lebanon’s foreign minister has stated the army will begin the process of disarming Hezbollah near the Israeli border within three months, a key step in this unfolding regional drama.